hot election

With the summer heat upon us I thought I would bring some hot topics to today’s blog – the election. I’ve broke it down into topics in three segments on why I think and don’t think Obama will be re-elected. I don’t really understand the American public and much of its voting practices, but it’s fun to think I do.

Why he might lose

ECONOMY – Lack of recovery and return on stimulus

At the beginning of November this may be the only point voters really care about. With an economy that’s been busted way before Obama has been office, it seems (to me) that the nation is looking for Obama to fix it. If the economy doesn’t improve a significant amount by Election Day I don’t think Obama will get re-elected. The days of Roosevelt economic policies are no good anymore. With the government’s spending at a max does anyone want the government spending more money for a recovery?

JOBS – Unemployment is still too high

If the economy doesn’t sink Obama in the election, jobs (and next on the list gas prices) will. Although unemployment is down, and the job growth is better than the job decline of his predecessor, the job market hasn’t improved well enough for the voters.

GAS PRICES – Remember when

It was okay to reelect a president when gas prices were high when the vice president was so influential in the oil business. Now with a recession it is just harmful. With no relief at the pump in a while, Obama can only hope that opening up U.S. oil reserves will help, not hinder him at the polls. Republicans? They are already blaming Obama for high gas prices just as Democrats were doing to Bush eight years ago.

FREEDOM – Fear of the red

Who really knows how many Americans think Obama is a socialist or communist. Various polls range from around 30% to anywhere around 55-60%. Considering he compromised to continue to give tax breaks to the richest in America that’s a very high number. Fear that Obama is a communist or works with many communists is one of many misconceptions that Obama’s administration has to deal with on a daily basis.

WARS/GUATANAMO BAY – Speaking of promises

One wave that Obama rode into his election was that he was going to end the Iraq war and close Guantanamo Bay. Iraq? It’s ending sometime, but much slower than anyone probably thought. Guantanamo? In a failed attempt it looks like Guantanamo will be staying open. What about Afghanistan?

IMMIGRATION REFORM – Kick them out… kick them out… all out!

In the end this topic won’t make or break many votes. For both sides though immigration reform hasn’t been changed or challenged. Anyone looking to vote solely on immigration reform may be upset at Obama. In the end though, Republicans don’t offer a better alternative.

THE ISSUES – just not getting done quickly enough

When you say you are going to bring a soda machine into the school you have to deliver. The hope and enthusiasm that Obama brought to many voters has left them upset at many things they thought would happen. Although he is the President there are still so many check and balances that you can’t blame Obama solely on not being able to deliver on all his promises. To see how Obama is doing on all his promises go here.

BAD PRESS – Who says any kind of press is good press

In 2006 and 2008 Democrats seemed to take control, and to me it looked like Republicans were going to struggle for a while. Not only did they do a complete 180º in 2010, but have even created bad press to the masses leading up to the 2012 election. The Obama administration has not been able to combat all the bad press with many of the good things the administration has done to both independents and Republicans.

CHANGE - keep the change you filthy animal

People afraid that the Obama administration is going to take away their guns, money, and freedom have put on a full scaled launch against Obama. Ironically it has been the banks and other business that they have been deregulating for the past 30 years that have been taking the most money and freedom from them.

Why he just might win

COMPROMISE

One way to win is to compromise. I’ve seen Scott Brown do it in Massachusetts, and Obama can only hope that independents see that he can work with both Republicans and Democrats. Obama has shown considerable compromise in taxes, in a bi-partisan cabinet, and others. He really is a centralist, but nobody knows it.

DADT

It’s not going to change the outcome of the election, but the repeal of the ‘Don’t Ask Don’t Tell’ policy is a step that many Americans see as good.

START security treaty

The treaty with Russia shows that Obama can work with international leaders and work toward a nuclear free world.

AUTO BAILOUT – Vroom vroom

Republicans hate the auto bailout. And it’s not something you want to see a government do all the time. In the end though not only did the bailout save companies like GM and Chrysler, the many suppliers that work with those car companies, and the thousands families who depend on the car industry it actually was a good “business” move for the U.S. government who made money off of the bailout.

TEA Party

The TEA Party keeps growing in popularity. Unfortunately for Republicans the independent voters they are trying to sway aren’t swayed like TEA Party Patriot like Michele Bachman. The Republican Party, if it really wants to win the election, will have to have a more central candidate unless the Republican Party wants another debacle like the TEA Party Patriot, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware.

I’m on the fence

OBAMACARE

The fact that the new healthcare law has been coined “Obamacare” makes me think that it will hinder not help Obama’s election campaign. On the other hand there are many good things about the new law including:

1. Eliminate lifetime limits on insurance coverage
2. Prevent health insurance companies from denying coverage because of a pre-existing condition
3. Allow young adults to remain on parents' insurance until age 26.
4. Provide subsidies for individuals and families and are not covered by an employer to purchase their own insurance.
5. Creates healthcare exchanges for uninsured people to purchase coverage at competitive rates.
6. Gives people on Medicare new access to free preventive services such as screenings for cancer and diabetes.
7. Closes the "doughnut hole" gap in Medicare Part-D by 2020.
8. Slows spending increases for Medicare beneficiaries to 2% per year, from the current rate of 4% a year.

Of course many of these changes won’t take place until after 2012 election which makes many of the good things about the law unsubstantial to voters.

What won’t matter

Reagan’s poor economy verses Obama’s poor economy. Some think that because Reagan won with a poor economy that Obama can do the same. It was a different era and a different mood of the country. I don’t think people can depend on this comparison to think that Obama can win.

A face to the Republican nomination. As of yet, there is still no strong face to the Republican Party. The people who are going to determine the election don’t care if there is a face or not. They want the best person to improve their lives. And whoever presents the better case will win.

Osama bin Laden. It makes Republicans not question Obama’s leadership for about 3 seconds. Those 3 seconds are over. With the rest of the country it has had a bigger impact on the view of Obama. In the end, no one will remember this in the voting booth in November.

Other impacts

Besides the economy the outcome of congress voting on raising the debt ceiling in time or defaulting may have a huge impact on how voters view Obama. By the U.S. defaulting it creates a huge problem for the U.S. In terms of the election it creates animosity towards both sides of congress, but a bigger impact on the President.

Overall I still think the election is a wide open race as to who will win. Obama has a lot riding on the economy and gas prices. If they both don’t improve significantly in the eyes of American voters I’m not sure he can win the election. Sometimes disappointment, disapproval, and disdain bring out the most voters as we saw in both 2006 and 2008. I’m not sure Obama can depend on his supporters to come out even more as they did for Bush in 2004 to re-elect him. He will need to re-convince many of the same independent voters he won over back in 2008 to win.